The Census and the Businessman

In developed countries, mainly in the United States, the information systems are more sophisticated. The information does not include only the population, but also their ages, gender, tastes, income, climate, conduct pattern, cultural background, etc.

In Guatemala, five census have been carried out in the last 47 years. The most recent one in 1994 has been widely criticized for not adjusting to the projections of more than 10 million inhabitants given by the Planning Office. (SEGEPLAN). The fact that more than one million guatemalans were omitted can be explained by two reasons.

The first reason is that SEGEPLAN took into account a population growth rate that was larger than reality, which gave a larger number of guatemalans. Nevertheless, a study done by the Center for National Economic Investigations (CIEN) in nine similar countries shows that the growth rate tends to be lower. In Guatemala, it decreased from 2.9% to 2.4%. The second reason is that the figure of 8.3 millions published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) in 1995, did not contemplate the censal omission. The censal omission for 1994 was calculated at 11..8%. Therefore, if added to the 8.3 millions, one would obtain a population of 9.3 millions.

The census also contains information in three specific fields: education, employment and living quarters. In reference to education and employment, a decrease in the illiteracy rate of 51%, in 1981, to 35% is observed. Not withstanding, the same study indicates that a third of the total of workers were "not qualified". Only 1% is considered as professionals, scientists and intellectuals, and a 3% as technicians and professionals at a middle level. As to the living facilities, the census indicated a reduction of the living facilities deficit, in the last years.

The census must be taken into account when taking decisions, although it might contain a margin of error. One might conclude: if during the years following the census the growth rate has been maintained, and considering the population in 1994, it is safe to assume that the population of Guatemala in 1997 is above 10 million inhabitants.